Friday, February 5, 2016

Headlines try to show panic that the pound could lose 20 pct of it's value

This was in the press yesterday and a head line from Goldman Sachs.
Are we to panic?

Absolutely not!

Let me explain.

Todays exchange rate to the USDollar is 1.4500
A 20 pct devaluation will put the rate to 1.16.
Euro 1.30 after devaluation 1.04.

What does this mean?
Ok so if you buy products from the UK from another country it will cost you less amount of dollars for the one pound.
So instead of paying 1.45 dlrs you will be charged 1.16
So this is happy days for the exporters of goods abroad.
On the flip side it means goods from abroad will be more expensive for the converse reason.
Therefore, by economics it means manufacturing in the UK increase or orders of a service increases, more staff to employ and therefore, more money to be spent in this country. Which in turn puts GDP up.
The downside is that inflation rises as there is more money in the system and therefore interest rates will rise to stem inflation.
Common sense says here, when we can say ' do we care?'
Inflation is at 0.1 to 0.2 pct so nothing!
But what it will do, is to ruin the EU economy and the UK will boom.
It takes 9 months to a year for any affect from a devaluation, so there is plenty of time.

So any attempt to make people panic is absolutely rubbish and is quite the opposite.

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